Analysis: What Pope Francis’ new cardinals reveal about future conclave

Cardinals follow the ceremony during the ordinary public consistory for the creation of new cardinals at St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City, Dec. 7, 2024. / Credit: Daniel Ibáñez/CNA

Rome Newsroom, Dec 8, 2024 / 18:36 pm (CNA).

A record 140 cardinals may attend an eventual conclave in the Sistine Chapel. There would have been 141, but Cardinal Miguel Angel Ayuso Guixot’s death on Nov. 25 reduced the number by one. In all, the Sacred College of Cardinals now has 255 members.

The number of cardinal electors is the most critical data point to emerge from this weekend’s consistory. Of the 140 cardinal electors, 110 have been created by Pope Francis, 24 by Pope Benedict XVI, and six by St. John Paul II. At the end of the year, on Dec. 24, Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, created cardinal by Benedict XVI in 2007, will reach 80 years of age and will, therefore, no longer be able to participate in a conclave.

Another 14 cardinals will turn 80 in 2025. They are Cardinals Christoph Schöenborn, Fernando Vérgez Alzaga, Celestino Aós Braco, George Alencherry, Carlos Osoro Sierra, Robert Sarah, Stanisław Ryłko, Joseph Coutts, Vinko Puljić, Antonio Cañizares Llovera, Vincent Nichols, Jean-Pierre Kutwa, Nakellentuba Ouédraogo, and Timothy Radcliffe.

Two of these were created by St. John Paul II, four by Benedict XVI, and eight by Pope Francis.

However, it will be necessary to wait until May 2026 to return to the figure of 120 cardinal electors established by St. Paul VI and never abrogated.

Pope Francis’ choices

For the first time, there is now a cardinal in Iran, Archbishop Dominique Matthieu of Tehran-Ispahan, a Belgian missionary. It is also the first time there is a cardinal in Serbia, with Archbishop Ladislav Nemet of Belgrade receiving the red hat.

Pope Francis has created cardinals from 72 different nations, and 24 of those nations have never had a cardinal before.

Pope Francis has also shown that he does not choose based on the traditional seats of cardinals. For example, there are no cardinals to lead the two historic European patriarchates of Lisbon and Venice, nor in Milan, Florence, or Paris.

There are exceptions, however. In this consistory, Pope Francis created cardinals in the archbishops of Turin and Naples in Italy; Lima, Peru; Santiago de Chile; Toronto; and the vicar general of the Diocese of Rome.

Naples entered the list somewhat surprisingly, with the pope’s decision communicated in a statement from the Holy See Press Office on Nov. 4. Archbishop Domenico Battaglia of Naples replaced Bishop Paskalis Bruno Syukur of Bogor, Indonesia, who had asked Pope Francis to remove him from the list of new cardinals for unspecified personal reasons.

The geographical balance of the College of Cardinals

The pope did not decide to replace a possible Indonesian cardinal with another cardinal from Asia.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Italian cardinals in the College of Cardinals is the lowest ever, at least in modern times. Only during the so-called Avignon Captivity (1309–1377) was the percentage of Italian cardinals so low.

However, to Italy’s 17 must be added Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, who is included in the quota of Asia, and Cardinal Giorgio Marengo, ordinary of Mongolia, also in Asia.

Cardinal Angelo Becciu is instead considered a non-elector, but this status is still being determined. Pope Francis had asked him to renounce his prerogatives as a cardinal but has continued to invite him to consistories and Masses, where he has always sat among the cardinals. If a decision is not made before then, the College of Cardinals, with a majority vote, will decide whether or not Becciu will be admitted to the conclave.

Regional distribution

The balance crucially stays the same. Europe has received three more cardinals, in addition to the four Italians with the right to vote: Nemet of Belgrade, 58; Archbishop Rolandas Makrickas, 52, coadjutor archpriest of the papal Basilica of Santa Maria Maggiore since March; and Dominican Father Timothy Radcliffe, 79. Europe now has 55 cardinals.

Latin America has received five new cardinals. The purple has arrived in dioceses that have received it several times — with Archbishop Carlos Gustavo Castillo Mattasoglio, 74, in Lima, Peru, and Archbishop Fernando N. Chomali Garib, 67, in Santiago de Chile — or only once — with Archbishop Luis Gerardo Cabrera Herrera, 69, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, and Archbishop Jaime Spengler, 64, who is also president of CELAM (the Episcopal Conference of Latin America), in Porto Alegre, Brazil.

The red birretta to Archbishop Vicente Bokalic Iglic, 72, of Santiago del Estero, Argentina, is also a first. However, in this case, the ground had already been prepared by the recent decision to move the title of primate of Argentina from Buenos Aires to this seat. Overall, Latin America now has 24 cardinals (including Braco, emeritus of Santiago de Chile, born in Spain).

Asia has received four new cardinals. The pope gave the red hat to Archbishop Tarcisius Isao Kikuchi of Tokyo, 66, and to the bishops of two dioceses that have never had a cardinal at the helm: Bishop Pablo Virgilio Siongco David, 65, of Kalookan in the Philippines, and Archbishop Dominique Joseph Mathieu, 61, of Tehran.

Africa has received two new cardinals, bringing the continent’s total to 18. The two new ones are Archbishop Jean-Paul Vesco, 62, in Algiers, and Archbishop Ignace Bessi Dogbo, 63, in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

North America now has 14 electors, with the addition of Toronto Archbishop Francis Leo, 53. Oceania has four electors, with the creation of Bishop Mykola Bychok of the eparchy of Saints Peter and Paul in Melbourne of the Ukrainians as cardinal. At 44, he has become the youngest member of the College of Cardinals.

National representation

Italy remains the most represented nation in the conclave, with 17 electors (plus two more in Asia). The United States has 10 cardinal electors, and Spain has seven (with another three in Morocco, Chile, and France).

Brazil has increased to seven electors, and India to six electors. France remains at five electors, to which Vesco in North Africa has been added. Cardinal François-Xavier Bustillo, bishop of Ajaccio, is anagraphically Spanish although naturalized French.

Argentina and Canada join Poland and Portugal with four cardinal electors, while Germany is tied with the Philippines and Great Britain with three.

The weight of cardinal electors engaged in the Curia, in other Roman roles or the nunciatures, has decreased, like that of the Italians. They will be 34 out of 140, a historic low.

Of the 21 new cardinals, 10 (all electors) belong to religious orders and congregations, another record. The number of religious electors in the sacred college has risen from 27 to 35. The Friars Minor joined the Salesians at five and surpassed the Jesuits, who remain at four. The Franciscan family grows to 10 electors (five Minors, three Conventuals, and two Capuchins). The Lazarists and Redemptorists rise to two.

What would a possible conclave be like?

As of Dec. 8, Pope Francis has created 78% of the cardinals who can vote in a conclave. This means that the cardinals created by Pope Francis far exceed the two-thirds majority needed to elect a pope.

This does not necessarily mean that the conclave will be “Francis-like.” Not only do the new cardinals all have very different profiles, but they have yet to have much opportunity to get to know each other. Popes have also used consistories to bring together cardinals to discuss issues of general interest.

Pope Francis had done so only three times: in 2014, when the family was discussed; in 2015, when the topic was the reform of the Curia; and in 2022, when the apostolic constitution Praedicate Evangelium, or the reform of the Curia now defined and promulgated, was discussed.

In this last meeting, the cardinals were divided into linguistic groups, with fewer opportunities to speak in the assembly together. This scenario makes the vote very uncertain.

Another fact that should be noted is that until St. John Paul II’s election, the cardinals gathered in the conclave were housed in makeshift accommodations in the Apostolic Palace near the Sistine Chapel. John Paul II had the Domus Sanctae Marthae (St. Martha House) renovated precisely to guarantee the cardinals who would elect his successor more adequate accommodations.

Today, however, Pope Francis lives in the Domus Sanctae Marthae. This means that, upon the pope’s death, at least the floor where the pontiff lives must be sealed, as the papal apartment is sealed. Sealing a floor of the Domus also means losing a considerable number of rooms. And with such a high number of voters, it also means risking not having enough rooms to accommodate all the cardinals.

The electors could be placed in vacant apartments within Vatican City State. This, however, would make them even more isolated. In practice, there is a risk that, during the conclave, the cardinals would not always be able to be together to discuss the election.

For these reasons, although Pope Francis has created more than two-thirds of the cardinal electors, it is by no means certain that the pope chosen in a future conclave will have the same profile as Pope Francis.