Analysis: Why Trump will likely carry Catholic-Democratic Pennsylvania

President Joe Biden recently attended the funeral of a childhood friend of his at his old parish of St. Paul’s in the Green Ridge section of Scranton. He came quietly, delivered a eulogy in the small neighborhood church on Penn Avenue, and departed quietly. Whatever his exact status as a Catholic in good standing, Biden’s appearance at an Irish-Catholic funeral in this old Catholic town is a mark of the politically Catholic identity of Northeastern Pennsylvania.

The shoots, however, aren’t as Catholic as the roots. There is an interesting connection between the crisis of faith that plagues this venerable part of Catholic America and why Donald Trump will likely carry the battleground state of Pennsylvania in November. Kamala Harris has a serious Pennsylvania problem, as Politico recently examined, and that problem is captured in Pennsylvanians’ longstanding but shifting relationship to the Democratic Party and the Catholic Faith.

As is often noted, there’s no winning the White House without winning Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes. For decades, Pennsylvania has had a tie to Democratic presidential candidates. Joe from Scranton was Vice-President on the Obama ticket for two cycles. Hillary Clinton’s father, Hugh Rodham, was from Scranton and is buried there. Then Biden came wheezing back to squeeze out Donald Trump in 2020.

But now, with Biden’s defenestration, Pennsylvania has no connection with the Democratic candidate. Kamala Harris, a Californian white-collar woman of color, doesn’t have the old-world connection that old working-class Joe had with the old working-class world of the Keystone State. She is simply not as marketable a commodity, despite the forced enthusiasm across the “vibing” Democratic base.

Of course, Pennsylvania broke the blue wall and went red in 2016 by a narrow margin. While much is being made over the current neck-and-neck Pennsylvania polls, there is a conservative trend in Democratic Pennsylvania that will probably hand the victory to Trump again. And it is one that is related to the condition of the Catholic Faith there.

Pennsylvania was—and, in some ways, still is—a deeply Catholic region, with grand and beautiful churches dotting the skylines with a striking proliferation, bringing faraway homelands from overseas with the universal care of Holy Mother Church, whether Roman, Byzantine, or Orthodox. There is (or was) a Catholic church in every neighborhood, with many claiming a specific ethnic group, whether Irish, Italian, German, Lebanese, Lithuanian, or Polish. The immigrants brought their strong backs to Pennsylvania along with their strong faith.

Cultural Catholicism, and its cultural conservatism, is inseparable from the character of Pennsylvania. Parish food festivals are a hub of local tradition; timeworn Catholic cemeteries sleep beside every little league field; brick schools, convents, and orphanages erected by holy heroes like Frances Cabrini, John Neumann, Katharine Drexel, and Maria Kaupas still stand; and Scranton’s solemn Novena to St. Ann at the basilica shrine is a tremendous event attended faithfully by thousands every summer.

The European immigrant Catholics who came to Pennsylvania a century ago to work in the coal industry were also Democrat, allied to the labor unions the Democratic Party championed against wealthy Republican mine owners and businessmen. The heritage of being a Catholic Democrat, therefore, runs deep in the region and reflects a different brand of Democrat, though vestiges persist (such as pro-life Democratic Governor Robert Casey, whose 1992’s legislation Planned Parenthood v. Casey proved the case that was instrumental for Dobbs in overthrowing Roe v. Wade).

The decades brought economic decline and hardscrabble times. On the Catholic side of things were dwindling congregations, priest shortages, and the closure or consolidation of many ethnic parishes. Grudges are still nursed in these parts for the unceremonious demolition of old beloved churches like Holy Family Parish, now a parking lot for the Jesuit University of Scranton.

Overall, a disenchantment or disconnection grew among Pennsylvanians for the ethnic protection the Church and the government once fostered together. (Of course, in more recent years, the repulse of abusive priests and shameful diocesan cover-ups took their toll on the morale of Pennsylvanian Catholics in particular.) With loss of commitment to the Church of their ancestors and less confidence in the labor laws that once protected naturalized Americans and their ethnic distinctions, Pennsylvanians have become less Catholic and less Democratic.

Though many still identify as both, according to their ingrained inheritance, all too many Pennsylvanian Catholics do not practice the Faith, and just as many dyed-in-the-wool Pennsylvanian Democrats are beginning to cast Republican ballots, as voter registrations show. In 2016, the voter pool was 48% Democrats and 39% Republicans. Today, the margin is narrower at 44% Democrats to 40% Republicans, with 15% not affiliated.

While the cradle-cafeteria Catholics of the state will feel the lack of a Catholic connection with Kamala Harris instinctually, and they will also continue judging that Republican policies are a better, more conservative, course for the economy, even though they may recall ghosts of GOP hostility. Many easily see or sense that the Party of the Little Guy has become the Party of the Big Government. And Pennsylvanians know what side of their bread is buttered when it comes to fracking.

Kamala Harris is not only not Catholic as this historically Catholic demographic would appreciate, but she also didn’t gain a shred of Catholic confidence by getting prosecutorial on a judge for being a Knight of Columbus (the Knights are big in Pennsylvania) as though he were an ideological extremist. Moreover, her pro-abortion stance is a point of possible contention for the state as well, given the region’s prominent right-to-life history and activity (even though Pennsylvanians may be as divided as the rest of the nation is on this issue of issues).

And so shift the socio-political tides of must-win Pennsylvania. As folks are separating from the Catholic Faith with churches shuttering and parishes shrinking and people shrugging off traditional morals (which is tragic), so are they separating from the Democratic Party as progressives emerge and far-Left ideologies loom (which is fortunate). The political scene is changing in Pennsylvania in the same measure as the Catholic scene is changing—both changes brought on by the changes in the American dreamscape.

Though the economy is always a main concern for the hardworking people of Pennsylvania, the immigration problem is one this immigrant community feels with pointed concern. The way the old neighborhoods are changing is as striking as how Pennsylvanians are changing. The dramatic in-pouring of foreigners is often disorienting. Pennsylvanians may be losing their sense of ethnic heritage as quickly as their Catholic heritage, but they are still a practical people and there is an impractical situation unfolding on Pennsylvanian streets.

While many newcomers are happy, honest, good people (and Catholic, too), it is troubling that their prospects appear hampered by a broken system that ushers people in too quickly to succeed. Many can’t speak English, struggle to find decent work and affordable housing, and seem easily caught up in desperate situations. Pennsylvanians know the importance of immigration, even if they are losing touch with their ethnic heritage. They know in their blood that the opportunity this country affords is sacred and should be handled prudently and legally. Vice President Harris’s record on the border, however, speaks for itself.

Pennsylvania’s fading loyalties to the liberals and, unfortunately, to the Church are bringing many Pennsylvanians around to the red side of their ballots, despite their blue backgrounds. It’s a little odd to imagine that the less Catholic one becomes, the more Republican one becomes, but that’s the curious social trend in Pennsylvania. And while it’s good to see sensible folks turning their backs on the irrational policies of the Left, it is terrible to see them turning their backs on the Church as well, long allied in their psyches as it is with the Democrat Party.

The most important aspect of all our politics, all our social structures, all our laws, all of our elections, is to help people get to heaven. Pennsylvanians may be starting to choose more discernably toward the common good, which may well contribute to short-term improvement in Washington policies, but the ultimate good must regain its priority. Meanwhile, this swing state is swinging conservative and is, for now, is Trump country.

Catholic World Report