Could the Pope stop World War 3?

Could the Pope stop World War 3? No, this isn’t about Ukraine. Aside from the fact that ship largely appears to have sailed, the chances of the war in eastern Europe developing into a full-blown international conflict (currently) appear remote. The West has refused to impose a no-fly-zone, instead limiting itself to arming Ukraine, which is bogged down in a war of attrition. Besides, the Pope’s power to seriously intervene appear limited, aside from suggesting the war was “perhaps somehow either provoked or not prevented”.

No, this is about China, and its well-known designs on Taiwan. In the face of the Ukraine conflict, the world appears to have woken up to this reality. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been open about its claimed sovereignty over Taiwan – the loss of face of not eventually acting on this intention may be too much to bear, especially as Chinese state media has never ceased telling the Chinese people that Russia is winning in Ukraine. Now the conflict appears to be turning in Moscow’s favour, the pressure on Beijing to do something will likely only grow. 

This isn’t the place for a lengthy discussion about who would win any such war (yes, the Taiwan Strait is tough to cross for much of the year, but Taiwan is easier to blockade than Ukraine), or the geostrategic significance (while Ukraine is of some significance, Taiwan’s significance is of a different magnitude given its position in the ‘first island chain’ blocking Chinese dominance of the Pacific), but the risk of conflict and metastasis across the region should not be understated. This then is where the Vatican comes in.

As reported last month, the Vatican has an opportunity to act on China. Later this year, a deal signed in 2018 between the CCP and the Vatican will expire. The initial two-year agreement was already renewed in 2020. Although the text itself is secret, we know both parties agreed to cooperate in the selection of bishops of a united Catholic Church in China. Beijing now elects and appoints bishops through the Bishops Conference of Catholic Church in China (BCCCC). The objective is a gradual merger of the Underground Catholic Church into the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association (CPCA). Chinese Catholicism is now fully under the jurisdiction of the CCP. 

Critics argue the Vatican has allowed the CCP to guarantee state control over a religious institution and a potential challenge to Beijing’s authority. Christianity – like Islam – is seen as especially problematic for the CCP, both very much perceived as foreign imports to the country. Little wonder that Beijing has sought control over the Catholic Church, given that China’s estimated 97 million Christians now outnumber members of the Communist Party itself. The genocide of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang is also well documented, alongside that of Falun Gong and Tibetan Buddhists.

It is estimated that anywhere between 20 and 50 million Chinese Christians have experienced persecution in recent years, with a 2020 report by the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China finding that Chinese Catholics suffered “increasing persecution” after the 2018 deal. In China, religious education for any faith is also illegal under the age of 18, meaning catechism classes have been closed while minors are not allowed to enter places of worship. All Catholic churches registered with the authorities are monitored by CCTV, with priests now forced to attend government training.

There is also widespread evidence of the persecution of clerics as well – the most high-profile perhaps being Cardinal Joseph Zen in Hong Kong, arrested on suspicion of “colluding with foreign forces”. Cardinal Zen’s is not a lone case, however. Bishop Joseph Zhang Weizhu of the Xinxiang diocese, arrested in May 2021, is still unaccounted for. Meanwhile Bishop Augustine Cui Tai – formerly Coadjutor Bishop in the Diocese of Xuanhua, in Hebei province – has been in jail on and off since 2007. 

Now, with the Vatican-CCP deal up for renewal, the Pope could make a stand. A condition for renewal could be the release of all incarcerated clergy, as well as unwillingness to accept increased church surveillance. The Vatican is not encumbered with economic considerations when dealing with Beijing. Meanwhile, since the situation of Chinese Catholics and other Christians is already dire, there seems little for the Vatican to lose. As Benedict Rogers pointed out for UnHerd: “Only two months after the deal was announced, bishop Peter Shao Zhumin of Wenzhou, was arrested for the fifth time in two years. He was released, but continues to face harassment.” Then, in January 2020, “Bishop Vincent Guo Xijin of Mindong, Fujian Province, who had already been demoted to the position of auxiliary bishop to make way for a Beijing-appointed prelate, was forced by the authorities to leave his residence, which was then shut down.” Is this really what the Vatican intended? 

Not only would a strong stand on the Vatican-CCP deal be a source of embarrassment to Beijing, but would likely shame much of the Catholic world into action – countries such as Brazil and China’s neighbour the Philippines, the world’s first and third most Catholic countries by population, both with a less than equivocal attitude towards the CCP. But there is another dimension too. The Holy See retains diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Vatican City State is in fact one of very few countries which recognises ‘the Republic of China’ as the sole representative of China, and the only European country to do so. 

By bringing the deal back under question, the Vatican could not only shine a light on religious persecution in China, but bring its own relations with Taiwan into the public domain, rallying international support for the democratic island nation at a time of increased peril. Within the last few weeks alone, Beijing has claimed sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait and ceaselessly breaches Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. It is even reported that Beijing has pressured the Vatican to cut ties with Taiwan and switch diplomatic recognition. 

Now the Pope could make clear his support for Taiwan. With a Catholic President in the White House meanwhile, the Vatican could also wield its immense soft power on both sides of the Atlantic. Perhaps the forces focused on conflict are too strong, but the Vatican-CCP deal has clearly been more of a victory for the latter than the former. Clergy are locked up, houses of worship torn down and crucifixes removed. The Holy See does not need to concern itself with trade, but can develop a foreign policy based on ethics alone. In making renewal of the deal conditional, the Pope can not only show solidarity with Chinese Christians but emphasise the Holy See’s outreach to Taipei, using the moment as an opportunity to rally support for peace. The Vatican does not have the military might the US and others have to force Beijing back, but it might have something stronger – the moral authority to bring the world back from the brink. In emphasising its continued support for, and recognition of, Taiwan, the Vatican could widen the coalition standing with the island nation. Will the Pope then take this opportunity?

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