The growing power of the Amish vote in US politics

Religion has not played a central role in this election campaign. It seems that there are other, more immediate issues—such as the economy, escalating international crises and Kamala’s “joy” levels—taking precedence in the minds of voters and candidates alike.

However, it could be that the voting habits of certain religious minorities end up being the deciding factor in the presidential race. With both international and national conflicts proving to be particularly divisive and polarising, it’s likely that religious blocs, whether holding firm to tradition or breaking up in favour of a new path, may shape the outcome next week.

Muslim frustration with both parties’ perceived lack of compassion toward Gaza; Jewish concerns over left-wing antisemitism on the fringes of the Democrats; Catholic support mobilising for Vance: once the results are in, religious voting trends will be well worth exploring to explain the result.

But perhaps the most endearing of all religious groups set to take the stage in this election are the Amish. An ultra-conservative sect of Anabaptist Christians, the Amish are best known for their rejection of modern technology. They are easily identifiable by their plain, traditional clothes and their use of horse-drawn buggies instead of cars.

Placing high value on a rural, simple life, they are generally not inclined to get involved in party politics. Gelassenheit, a term denoting acceptance of God’s will, and Ordnung, the set of rules governing Amish life, mean they largely remain passive about the world’s outside goings-on.

However, as culture wars drive Americans into increasingly polarised camps, the Amish have found themselves taking sides with an eclectic bunch: wellness aficionados, Gwyneth Paltrow, and Donald Trump. And the reason? Raw milk.

Since the 2010s, influencers have been advocating raw milk for its health benefits, with Paltrow saying she takes it in her morning coffee. Despite its potential to cause life-threatening conditions like sepsis and meningitis, raw milk has garnered fans as far afield as the Queen’s son, Tom Parker Bowles.

Due to health concerns, the U.S. has an array of legal restrictions surrounding raw milk at both federal and state levels. In 1987, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a federal ban on interstate sale or distribution of raw milk for human consumption, citing public health risks, and since then, a patchwork of state laws has regulated its sale and distribution.

Conservative libertarians have taken issue with these restrictions. Generally suspicious of laws that regulate or restrict food choices, they find the prohibition of this most wholesome of drinks entirely wrong and fully support the hipster’s right to infectious illness.

They also support raw milk producers, many of whom are Amish, as raw milk production aligns with Amish agricultural practices and self-sufficiency. When Amish farmer Amos Miller’s farm in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, was raided by police for selling raw milk without a licence, it became a rallying point for MAGA supporters advocating Amish farmers’ rights. Donald Trump Jr. fueled the debate with a tweet: “Imagine what law enforcement could accomplish if they went after, oh I don’t know, say, members of elite paedophile rings rather than farmers selling to their neighbours??”

While the Amish typically avoid voting, they can sometimes be motivated to participate, as they were in the 1950s when concerns over public school policies—particularly mandatory high school attendance—prompted many to vote.

With 90,000 Amish living in Pennsylvania, and an estimated 80 percent chance that whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the presidency, it’s unsurprising that Republicans are eager to court the Amish vote. Special delegations of the Trump campaign have appeared at Amish fairs and farms, and the Republican group Early Vote Action has even arranged buses to transport Amish voters to early voting sites across the state.

Though this engagement may have some impact on today’s election, the Amish’s growing population might prove even more influential in the future. Most Amish trace their ancestry to a few hundred immigrants who arrived from Europe—mainly Switzerland and parts of Germany—in the 18th century. Today, their population exceeds 375,000, with a growth rate that doubles every 25 years. The average Amish woman has 6.7 children, compared to the U.S. average of 1.66.

This has led some Americans to wonder: how long until we’re all Amish? The answer is, not anytime soon. Even with their high birth rate, it would take 215 years for the Amish population to match the current U.S. population.

Yet they are very well placed to have a huge influence on future elections. Among the six states with the highest Amish populations, three are key swing states this election: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

As their population rises and if they continue to vote—and to vote in blocs—it may only be a matter of time before a clear path to the White House requires winning Amish support. 

An Amish horse-drawn buggy passes by “Stop Illegal Voting” and “Trump 2024” signs in Strasburg, Pennsylvania on October 19, 2024. (Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images)

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