What does Trump’s arrest mean for the next US presidential race?

(New York)

Next year’s U.S. presidential election has taken a dramatic turn with the arrest in New York City of former president Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsely submitting business accounts.

Trump is the first president, or former president, to be charged with a criminal offence in the Republic’s nearly 250-year history. The significance for Americas 80 million Catholics is that if a jury of New Yorkers finds Trump guilty, his attempt to become re-elected to the White House in November next year will come to an abrupt end because anyone found guilty of a felony—a federal crime—is automatically disbarred from standing for federal office.

Thus, if Trump is convicted, the chances of two Catholics – Joe Biden v Florida governor Ron DeSantis  – vying for the White House in 2024 would become an increasing possibility.

In the hour-long hearing in a sombre New York State courtroom in Lower Manhattan, the usually wordy and combative former president spoke just two words: “Not guilty.” Trump has persistently denied all charges against him and has dismissed the Manhattan District Attorney’s investigation into his complex business affairs as a political  “witch hunt” and condemned the whole US system of justice as broken and
reminiscent of the crooked prosecutions to be found in banana republics.

The Trump legal team is confident they will be able to have the 34 charges thrown out before the full details are discussed and debated in open court. This is reflected in the fact that the current Attorney
General Alvin Bragg, as well as his predecessor, Cyrus Vance—both Democrats—had shelved the cases against Trump after losing confidence they had compiled enough evidence to ensure the charges against Trump would stick.

The full list of charges was only made public in the court yesterday and all revolve around the alleged falsification of business financial records by Trump and his associates when it emerged that Trump’s
attorney and fixer Michael Cohen paid $130,000 to a porn actress, Stormy Daniels, to prevent her from making public three weeks before Trump was elected president in 2020 that she had had an adulterous
affair with him.

Many of the other charges allege that Trump deliberately falsified his businesses’ accounts, bolstering the value of his properties when seeking financial loans with them as collateral, and minimising the
value of his portfolio to the U.S. Inland Revenue Service to avoid tax.

Neither paying someone to remain silent, nor the falsification of financial accounts is considered a serious crime in New York State. Indeed, NDAs, or non-disclosure agreements, are a commonly used device by which companies try to avoid bad publicity resulting from accusations usually made by former employees. Faking accounts is also deemed a misdemeanour rather than a serious crime.

The reason for the Manhattan D.A. decided to press charges against Trump is that falsifying accounts in order to cover up a more serious crime converts the crime from a misdemeanour to a felony, or federal
crime. It is alleged by the prosecution that Trump compensated Cohen with a personal cheque for paying off Daniels to avoid bad publicity which might alter the result of the 2016 presidential election, which
he went on to win.

Notwithstanding the many millions of dollars raised and spent by American politicians during election campaigns, strict regulations govern what constitute legitimate expenses. In the many pages of
evidence provided by the Manhattan D.A. to the court, compensating Cohen the $130,000 paid to Daniels was fraudulently  described in Trump’s business accounts not as a campaign expense but as a “legal fee.”

It is expected that Trump’s defence attorneys will make the case that it is beyond the legal competence of state attorneys general to pursue felony charges which should instead be brought by the federal
government’s Justice Department. It is Justice Department policy to avoid bringing charges against electoral candidates because it would interfere with the democratic process.

Even though Merrick Garland, President Joe Biden’s Justice Secretary, may have good personal reasons to make life difficult for Republican leaders, Garland has stayed true to his Department’s non-interventionist tradition.

Republican senators failed to even consider his nomination by President Barack Obama to the Supreme Court, leading to the Court establishing a solid conservative (and Catholic) majority, with six out of the nine Supreme Justices (John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett) – now being Catholic. The remaining three Justices are two Protestants and one Jew. This has prompted such controversial decisions as the overturning of established law in Roe v Wade, which has overnight ruled abortions to be illegal.

Trump, who is Episcopalian and married to a practising Catholic (Melania Trump), flew back to Florida and his home in the country club hotel Mar A Lago and delivered a feisty speech to supporters claiming
the charges brought against him by the Manhattan D.A. are politically motivated.

Rather than dent Trump’s presidential bid, his robust response to the charges has boosted his support among Republican voters, unified the Republican Party, and allowed him since last week to raise $7 million to pay for legal expenses.

The charges levelled against Trump in New York are unlikely to be brought to resolution by the end of the year. Meanwhile, other legal threats may cause as much if not more grief to his attempts to be
restored to the presidency.

He is accused of encouraging the riot that saw the Capitol building invaded and vandalised by his supporters, and the deaths of police officers; he faces vote tampering charges for urging the
Attorney-General of the state of Georgia to “find” more votes for him in the 2020 presidential election; he is still being investigated by the Justice Department for removing boxes of highly secret documents
from the White House to his Florida home; and later this month he must confront allegations of rape when his accuser’s case comes to trial.

In short, the Trump circus goes on; and so long as he is not convicted, the chances of  the 2024 White House battle becoming a re-match between Biden v Trump can only become more likely.

(Getty)

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